Demarchy

Two more stories. The final part to my feature on Ethical Oil (now under new leadership) and another OpenFile column about the untimely death of the Thomas Mulcair campaign.

Rumors of Thomas Mulcair’s Demise Have Been Greatly Understated. (Original title.)

The great New Democrat succession competition is now two months old. The field is crowded. All the candidates have announced their intentions (Pat Martin’s pussyfooting aside) – so why is Thomas Mulcair’s campaign already dead in the water?

Since the member for Outremont took to the stage with 33 fellow MPs in Côte-des-Neiges last month, hardly hide nor hair has been heard from the man who was, at one time, ‘the chosen one.’

Mulcair has spent November crossing the country. Headlines of small, local papers were made. And he doesn’t appear to have any upcoming events scheduled. Ever.

But, as conventional wisdom tells us, Mulcair is in charge of Quebec. New membership numbers show that La Belle Province has more than doubled its membership to over 5,500.

Read the rest over at OpenFile.

Ethical Oil: Party 3, NAFTA.

Trying to make sense of Canadian energy policy is not for the faint of the heart, so I called Gordon Laxer. The University of Alberta professor has spent the past 29 years in Alberta, having followed Canadian energy policy through the 60s to the first real emergence of a national plan in the 70s, followed by the wholesale auctioning of Canadian energy sovereignty in the 80s.

“We are basically an energy satellite or an energy colony of the United States,” he says.

“That’s the definition of a colony; when the people of a country don’t have first access to their own resources,” he says, laughing. “That’s what a colony is about.”

Check out the whole snarky business on ForgetTheBox.

Proportional Representation? Might be a good idea.

Well, the NDP race is all but sewn up.

He, the front-runner that the mages hath prophesied of, has/will picked/pick up a large number of high profile endorsements from MPs and prominent New Democracts all across Canada/in Quebec. It’s all but a sure thing now; that the next leader of the NDP will be Brian Topp/Thomas Mulcair.

That’s right - it’s a fait accompli. Or, as one of the dirty angolophone New Democrats would say - a done accomplishment.

Some would accuse me of merely putting down both names as a way to avoid being wrong. I resent that 

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Listen - Pat Martin, Justin Trudeau, the Globe and Mail, Mary Magdalene and the almighty Zeus can speculate about an NDP-Liberal merger, but it’s just not going to happen. The likelihood of the two parties shacking up for anything other than an awkward, sweaty, one-election-coalition is so beyond the realm of possibility, it’s absurd.

Let’s imagineer a narrative here.

The NDP has three times as many seats as the Liberals. That makes them three times bigger. The Liberals are the “natural governing party.” Maybe the NDP has a streak of self-confidence because of the so-called ‘orange wave’ and are thus over-evaluating their self-worth just a tad, but the Liberals self-perception is so out of whack with the current status of their party that nothing short of absolute control of the proposed merged party would satisfy them.

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Even with Jack Layton’s imposing force still prominent from the national stage, the speculation is abound as to who shall step into his large shoes and noted mustache.

Yesterday, the grief was thick. The attacks were few (unless you’re a bottom-feeder like Warren Kinsella or Christie Blatchford.) I myself was pretty distraught. Today, the political question arises.

On the first day you mourn, on the second you get back to work.

Some may say it’s too soon. Some recoil at the thought of trying to replace a Canadian cultural icon who has only been dead a day. Those fears are misplaced. Jack made it pretty obvious, during his tenure and the letter that he left behind, that the movement is bigger than he is. The best homage to his memory is to get to work building the party and continuing the fight in the House of Commons.

Yadda yadda yadda it’s time to wildly speculate about who will be the next to lead the NDP.

The Globe today came out with the two “front runners” (as anointed by the corporate media politicgensia.) 

Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair.

First off, I’m going to throw it out there that the so-called “front-runners” were leaked either by the staff of Brian Topp, or Thomas Mulcair. Topp wants to make it look like a two dog race between him and the logical front runner, while Mulcair wants to set up a non-declared likely non-candidate as his only opposition. Both are shrewd political savants who know their way around a controlled leak.

Stories have come out tonight about Topp wringing his hands at the prospect. That’s a classic process piece. You leak that you’re a contender, you plant the idea that people are asking you to run and then you deny that you’re considering it, asking that folks respect the previous leader. If you run, folks think they did it because of grassroots pressure. If you don’t, people start going wild about who will replace you (despite the fact that you may not have been running in the first place.)

I don’t think Topp will run. If he runs, I don’t think he’ll win. If he wins, I don’t think he’ll be effective. Not because of any animosity I have towards Topp, but simply because the NDP needs to draw from within at a time like this. Given the NDP’s emphasis on “Team Layton” (prior to the last election, and increasingly since) it sends a message of incredible weakness if the candidate selected is one that is not a sitting MP. It gives credence to those who say that the current caucus is inexperienced. Putting out some of those names as contenders allows the public to meet “Team Layton.” 

Have no doubts, there has been a small pack of MPs who have been quietly setting themselves up for a run for when Layton steps down. Given the tragic circumstances of how he left, they’ll wipe away the tears and get back in the race.

Another factor to keep a close eye on is where Anne McGrath and Brad Lavigne go. McGrath, Layton’s chief of staff, and Lavigne, the NDP’s political guru, represent a massive amount of power in the party. If they do not go to Mulcair, that could be a direct repudiation of the anointed one.

So, given that the Globe has done a terrible job vetting the candidates; here’s my list.

Thomas Mulcair

Yes, he is the logical front-runner. He is as mean as he is brilliant.  Having been the NDP’s lone guy in Quebec for the previous several years, he is now the natural leader of the pack for the newbie Quebecois MPs. His fluent bilingualism is a big help. His solidly French roots may not help in the Prairies, however (sad, but that’s the way it is.)

Mulcair is a relatively right-leaning guy. Having contemplated joining the Conservatives and having served as a Liberal minister (in Quebec, mind you) - his socialist bona fides are definitely in question. For the talking heads, that may seem like an advantage. With the Liberals recovering from a whopping, it may seem logical to have a party-straddler than can further supplant them. Yet, political expediency doesn’t always play over well when put to the masses of the NDP membership (as, perhaps, it shouldn’t.)

To that end, Mulcair will have a hard time winning over some of the New Democrat mainstays who will come out in droves for the leadership race. Not to say it’s impossible, however, but it will require some maneuvering. In 1995, Alexa McDonough and Lorne Nystrom outflanked natural front-runner Svend Robinson to hand McDonough the leadership.

The party today, however, isn’t exactly the same as 15 years ago. Jack’s election marked a shift from pragmatic Blair-esque Third-Way policy and towards a moderate social democratic populist makeover. Convincing the party faithful to forsake Jack’s politics in favour of leadership that led the party to dismal failings throughout the 90‘s will be a tough sell. Mulcair, if not properly branded, will represent that failing.

Nevermind that the man is a bristly porcupine of a politician known for his gruff demeanor and short temper. Enchanting voters like Layton did will not come easily to Mulcair. Virtually the only way his victory is assured is if he can scare the party into thinking the Quebec seats are in play. If that happens, he will be a fit of desperation to entrench and maintain the party’s Quebec breakthrough. That may come at the cost of new seats in the Praries and BC, and could even see the party relegated mostly to La Belle Province.

Libby Davies

The party’s other deputy leader. A genuinely nice woman who is affable and smart as a whip, but can still play the political game.

She is no doubt the left wing of the party and likely the most logical Jack Layton stand-in. She certainly represents the circa 2008 party that built the framework for the massive Quebec breakthrough. She would be the cause celebre of pro-Palestinian, environmental, social justice and labour groups. That’s a double-edged sword, however, as she has been vilified before over statements she made regarding Israel. No doubt the Conservatives have attack ads already mapped out.

Given she’s not fluently bilingual (something that can be remedied in the next year) and she has a few skeletons in her closet (as any good activist should) I’m not sure she’s a likely choice to win. Running, however, could shift the debate leftward and give credible opposition to Mulcair. Given that many, many of those within the party are terrified of a Mulcair victory, Davies could play the spoiler - especially if she drops out late and endorses someone else.

If, by some stroke of luck, she was elected she would be the first Queer leader in North America. That’s pretty cool.

Peter Julian

A relatively unknown figure for non-political geeks, Julian has looked like a leader for the past three years. Given his status as a long-time British Colombian MP, he represents a part of the country that could hand the NDP victory (assuming they can hold on to Quebec, which Julian might have a tougher time doing.)

Julian was recently touted to be the next leader of the BC NDP, a move he appeared to consider, but eventually decided against it. Had he run, he likely would have beat Dix and might have even become premier. My suspicion is that he weighed his options and figured he could take a shot for the PM job.

Julian would resonate rather well with suburban families. He’s a relatively mild-mannered guy, but can deliver a helluva speech when he needs to. He’s pragmatic but with strong convictions. He’s been a long time critic of free trade and has lobbied for move oversight of Canadian mining companies operating abroad. He would be a darling of labour and environmental groups across the country. He also seems to have a large amount of support from the United Church.

He would be one of the most likely candidates to go up against Mulcair and have a shot.

Paul Dewar

Dewar is a natural leader. He is a massive policy wonk, especially on foreign affairs, and has garnered a fair amount of respect for his work in committee. He’s young, well respected in his riding. He’s a solid, but rather safe choice.

The fact he lives in Ottawa could play against him, as he may come to be seen as a career politician and contrary to Jack’s message of making parliament work. However, having his constituency so close to Quebec would make it rather easy to identify and interact with the Francophones that the NDP need so badly to keep.

He’ll need a haircut, though.

Andrew Cash

Okay, not a likely choice. The newly-elected Toronto MP is a brilliant speaker who radiates intelligence and confidence. A relatively young guy with strong credentials on arts and culture issues (he was formerly in a punk band with colleague Charlie Angus) he could do a fantastic amount to court young voters. If Harper’s poll numbers sink enough, he may even help the party break into the 905 around Toronto.

His campaign in Toronto was a model for the rest of the candidates across the country. He ran a social media-oriented, high-energy, well-staffed and well-financed campaign that was considered a dark horse at the outset and ended up blowing away his Liberal challenger by 11,000 votes.

He also bears an eerie resemblance to Tommy Douglas. So, y’know, he’s got that.

Peggy Nash

MP-turned-party president-turned MP, Nash may be the best chance of getting a woman elected as party leader. She has very strong labour ties but is currently the finance critic and could take the government to task on battling the deficit. She could simultaneously appeal to the pocketbook-watching nuclear family while energizing groups like the Canadian Auto Workers (for whom she used to work.)

Her experience on advancing women’s equality could definitely build up support amongst the party’s most important base - females.

Making her leader carries the risk, as with Cash, of making the party look Toronto-oriented. Which is not the worst thing in the world, because the only real areas of growth are the Toronto suburbs, the Prairies and BC. The nation’s largest city would be a good start.

Joe Comartin

Long-time justice critic for the party, Comartin represents the northern Ontario roots of the NDP. You can put a check mark next to his name in the ‘labour’ column. He’s run before (against Layton) and would be a good choice to combat Harper’s tough-on-crime agenda. He’s also been a strong supporter of the gun registry, so he would be an effective voice for this who want to save the endangered gun control regime.

However, Comartin isn’t exactly young and would have a remarkably tough time connecting with the Quebecois caucus.

Olivia Chow

Her name has been banded about in the wake of Jack. Suffice it say, I would be very surprised. Chow does great constituency work from what I’ve heard, and she’s been very vocal on a few issues.

However, she’ll have a tough time cobbling up the support required to become leader. Making her deputy leader to whoever does get the nod would be a nice gesture and a show that Jack is still within the party.

Her voice should be well heeded, however, as she has the best idea of where Layton wants to take the party and it would be a stunning coup for anyone who picks up her endorsement.

Megan Leslie

Listen, she won’t run, but that won’t stop every left-leaning person in her riding from pleading with her to (myself included.) Leslie is a smart, honest, personable, funny, anti-politician who would be immediately liked by anyone under 30, women, environmentalists and social justice activists. She’s been a strong advocate for tough environmental standards, she helped craft the NDP’s pharmacare legislation and she’s been elected amongst the best MPs several times now.

She’s young, easy on the eyes and even picked up a strange endorsement via the American Embassy that was released in the Wikileaks Cables.

Formerly a legal aid lawyer, Leslie would ‘woo’ a lot of Canadians with her strong stances on affordable housing, harm reduction strategies and student issues. Would they all be popular? Not necessarily.

She, however, appears to have no interest in running. Shame.

…And the rest of the pack

The NDP have never been known to have a large field for leadership races. No doubt this one will be as pared-down as possible, considering the party won’t want to detract from the work going on in Ottawa with internal bickering. That being said, there are several factors at play - ambition to possibly become prime minister, the feeling of obligation to carry Jack’s banner and the perceived need to stop Mulcair.

The entire Quebec caucus (Mulcair aside) is the unknown factor. Some may run. It would likely be disastrous unless they are squeaky clean, are solidly bilingual and have a ubiquitous appeal to all of Canada. There may be a few of those in there, we’re just not sure yet. (Some interesting names pop up like Hoang Mai, Romeo Saganash and Hélène Laverdière who could do a lot to advance immigration, Aboriginal affairs and international relations, respectively.)

There’s also the outside contenders. Folks like Brian Topp who, if they run, will be directly admitting that the current NDP team is unfit to govern. It will likely foster dissent within the party and the membership. Such a move smacks of elitism and patronage. Please, for the love of god, make someone who has served the Canadian public your leader. Please, NDP, please. 

No, not that S word. And no, it’s nothing to do with the Showtime program about a bunch of lesbians living in the city, just trying to make it work.

No, I’m talking about the word which shall not be breathed less you want a veritable tidal wave of Anglo-Canadian chest-thumping and circle-jerking.

Yes, Separatism.

Full post here, dawgs.

There are two prevailing theories on Libya that are floating through the house of commons rights now. One, the Conservative thought process, follows that a regime change to get rid of Gaddafi is the best course of action for Libya. The New Democrats contend that we should continue the current mission but not actively try to overthrow Gaddafi.

The Conservative plan sounds nice, and I’m sure they’re doing it for all the right reasons, but there is a historical imperative that says it pretty clearly; imperial intervention doesn’t work.

This government can disarm the Libyan army without becoming an imperial power. Tactical air strikes can reduce the capacity of Gaddafi’s forces to massacre it’s own people. That’s a good thing.

It’s when you start getting into local politics that things go awry. If the Conservative government thinks the Canadian military knows how to form a government better than the Libyans, then it’s deluded. 

One needs go no farther than the Wikipedia page on the subject to get a good idea of how well regime changes work to foster positive development;

• Iran (1953) - CIA-led coup installs the Shah, a brutal tyrant. Coup fosters anti-American sentiment, causes hostage crisis and eventually the Iranian Revolution
• Tibet (1950s) - CIA-led insurgency. Totally failed.
• Cuba (1961) - Bay of Pigs. Say n’more.
• Democratic Republic of the Congo (1960) - American government helps install one of the most corrupt and violent regimes in Africa
• Iraq (1960s) - Saddam Hussein. Say n’more.
• Chile (1973) - US helps overthrow democratically elected Marxist, Pinochet takes over. Slaughters civilians.
• Afghanistan (1970/80s) - Taliban. Say n’more.
• Iran 1980
• Nicaragua (1980s) - US sells drugs to Iran for weapons to give to brutal mercenaries fighting civil war against democratically elected government. 

And there are so many more. Haiti, Palestine, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. Virtually one of the only successful intervention in the history of American imerpialism was in the case of South Africa, where a soft approach (aid, mostly) allowed for the defeat of apartheid. 

If one of the most experience imperialist states can’t effectuate positive change through toppling regimes, why does Canada and its NATO allies think it can do the same? Nevermind that America would likely be organizing the Libya mission.

The people of Libya need to decide their own future. All we can do is try to protect them, ensure they have basic humanitarian supplies and stand in solidarity with their struggle. 

Conclusion being; the NDP needs to buy a newspaper.

There is a real disconnect between the reality of our platform, our successes and our goals and what the public perceives our ideology to be. Our party has the best record, provincially, of balanced budgets (the sore thumb being Bob Rae, now a Liberal.)

Here is a conversation I had yesterday;

Her:

I support the Conservative Party because I want less government in my life, not more.

Me:

Here’s the irony; the Conservatives have presided over some of the most wasteful spending in our history, one of the largest expansions in our defense spending, a hugely wasteful war, programs that have jailed teenagers and adults alike for possessing marijuana and a large infringement onto our civil rights. Do you support gay marriage? Abortion? Do want the government to just stay out of your social life? Well Harper disagrees. Meanwhile they’ve cut back on essential social services that we’re paying for and justified it by saying that we should have small government. Prime Minister Harper has left Canadians stranded halfway across the world and refused to stand up for their rights as Canadians. How do you reconcile that?

Her:

Well…Uh…

So you’re a Conservative? Fine. There are many justifiable reasons to be a Tory. However, to defend all of Harper’s policies is in itself an exercise in hypocrisy. Harper has hopped around the political spectrum in an effort to retain power and make himself out to be a pragmatist, however, his rhetoric just does not match his record.